This is the English translation of my original post in Italian, published on Oct. 3rd, 2016. I did not change any astrological comments from the original post, but added some political information for those readers not familiar with Italian politics.
In my analysis of the English referendum “Brexit” I had chosen to work with the chart for the opening of the polls and to follow Lilly’s method of “stay or go”, shown on p. 212 of his Christian Astrology. In the analysis, I associated the option of remaining in the EU with the Ascendant (current situation) and the option of leaving the EU with the Descendant.
In this referendum, the Italians are asked to decide, whether they agree to change several passages of the constitution, in particular the rule of one of its chambers, the Senate.
Basically, there are two groups: those who want to change the current constitution, led by the prime minister Matteo Renzi and those who do not want to change the constitution because they consider the proposed changes as inadequate. To make the situation clear: the government in charge wants to change parts of the current constitution (but this is not a question about parties, as also the party in charge is split about this question), while some of the opposing parties (but also some currents of the leading party) do NOT want to change the constitution, written in 1948.
I’ve decided to use Lilly’s method of ”stay or go” also in this case. As I will show later on, there are other reasons too, which make me think that this is indeed the correct approach.
Without entering too much into Italian internal politics, we can say, that this is a simple question of “mantaining status quo or not”, in which the AC is given to the current situation (old constitution).
- The people defending their current constitution will vote “NO” (AC).
- The DC is given to the changed They will vote “YES”.
Here is the chart cast for the moment of the opening of the polls.
The “ NO to changes” option
The “NO” option is described by the ascendent in Sagittarius and its ruler Jupiter in the 11th house.
We find the Sun approaching Saturn in the 1st house. Saturn governs the 2nd house, the resources. During elections, the “resources” are represented by the people going to vote. In this case, there is no quorum, the simple majority of votes, wins. If Saturn rules this house, the problem could be a low number of voters. The Sun rules the 9th house and the 3rd. An important part of the Italian voters is represented by those who are living abroad and who are voting “NO”, since the Sun is in the 1st house.
Jupiter is in the house of his joy and in his own bound but out of sect, this being a night chart. He is close to Fortune and the most elevated planet. He receives a trine from Mars, the malefic in sect, ruler of both 5th and 12th house. Jupiter is at only 1° distance from a perfect sextile with Saturn, by whom he is received by exaltation.
Since Jupiter is in the upper part of the chart and configured with the malefics by favorable aspects, his position is quite strong. It is interesting to note that he rules the 4th house, associated with the popular opinion.
The “Yes to changes” option
The referendum is strongly pushed forward by the current Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi.
It is noteworthy to see that his natal AC is in Gemini, which in the present chart describes the “Yes” option. Mercury is in Capricorn, where Renzi has his natal Sun. In the chart of the poll opening, the 10th house, which rules “the boss”, “power” or “government” is in Virgo, which is also ruled by Mercury. Mercury is the natural ruler of very young persons, and Renzi is among the youngest Italian politicians (he was 39 when he became prime minister). This referendum is also called the“Renzi/Boschi referendum”. (Maria Elena Bosch is the minister for constitutional reforms and Renzi’s main supporter. They have often been considered as some kind of duo/couple. Remember Gemini is a double bodied sign.).  As she is Renzi’s ally and support, she can be associated with the ruler of the derived second house from the 10th, Venus. Interestingly, the “couple”, Mercury and Venus are both in the same sign and WSH house, but Venus is going to leave it. Interestingly their whatsoever idilliac relationship seems to have broken up recently.
Back to the opening of poll chart.
Mercury is in the 2nd house, approaching a trine with the South Node in the 10th house, which describes his ambition to “win” the referendum. He has just left his detriment, but is still peregrine, thus in a position of empasse, and since he is not configured with any planet, he cannot expect any help. We also need to consider that Mercury is in the derived 8th house (the 8th from the DC), describing the “death” or loss of the proposed constitutional change.
Let’s now have a look at the Moon, who describes the unfolding events.
The Moon is in a fixed sign, thus not showing any changes. She is in the 3rd house, in her joy, but peregrine. She just left Venus and is now approaching a sextile with the Sun (7°), followed by a trine with Jupiter (12°). This means that the Moon transfers the Sun’s light to Jupiter before the latter can complete his sextile with Saturn. Thus the votes of the Italians living abroad will be very important for the victory of the “NO” option.
Matteo Renzi and the “YES” option do not appear to have a large consense, on the contrary, the chart shows the prime minister to be rather isolated. The difficulty of the referendum will be a low participation to the ballot boxes (Saturn the 1st) but my prediction is a clear victory for the “NO” option: the constitution won’t be changed.
My forecast about the victory of the “NO change” option was correct. Renzi offered his resignation just after the results were official (Dec. 5th, 2016), but Italy’s president Mattarella did not accept Renzi to resign until some economic measures will have been voted by both Italian chambers, which should take some 10 days. The quality of the government change is shown in the Libra Ingress chart and will be studied in a separate post .
 Jupiter is out of sect. Nobody considered the current constituton to be perfect and all agree that things have to change. The problem is the “how”. So many Italians, rather than accepting what they consider inadequate changes, prefer not to touch the constitution at all, until there will be a very large consense about the possible changes.
 While I was right about the influcence of the Italians living abroad, the rule of Saturn revealed not to be correct: Saturn does not only symbolize a small number (as I assumed), but also heaviness and weight, in this case it referred to a strong influence. The Italians living abroad voted mainly “yes”, in favour of a changing constitution: Saturn in the 1st (obstacle for the “no-changes option”) meets the Sun (Italians abroad).
Matteo Renzi, 11/1/1975 ore 14.45, Firenze (Source: astrodienst, Rodding: AA)
Far from being just a political question, as regulated by the constituition, the referendum had become a very personell question for Renzi
 This held true, but not as I had thought about it. The fact that the prime minister wrote a letter to the Italians living abroad inviting them to vote (directly or indirectly) in favor of the constitutional change caused a huge scandal and many Italians (in Italy) were fed up with that never stopping propaganda maschine and the ego bias of their prime minister.
This was wrong. The partecipation on the referendum was particularly high. I had not considered the applying aspect to Saturn from 4th house ruler Jupiter.