In this paper I am going to explore the Covid 19 outbreak in Italy using traditional techniques such as yearly and monthly profections, solar revolutions and transits. I am aware that many mundane astrologers work with eclipses and ingresses in order to discuss events linked to a Nation, but I think that profections and revolutions can also be applied to the birth chart of a country, if the approach is consistent.
The article will be three folded. In the first part I will shortly delineate the Italian foundation chart. Since the profected Ascendant switched from one into the next sign just in the middle of the Corona outbreak in Italy, in the second part I will look at the 2019-2020 profection and in particular its last month, before I am going to analyse in the third part the astrological configurations of the actual profection and solar revolution that were activated on February 18th 2020-and that will come to an end on February 17th , 2021.
Before exploring the outbreak of the Corona virus, I need to address the topic of chart data. I decided to use the time, when Italy was no longer just a geographical denomination but was first declared a Nation, an import distinction that the Italian astrologer Lucia Bellizia has stressed in her article L’Unità d’Italia- un lungo e faticoso processo (The unification of Italy – a long and tiresome process). I will thus work with the very moment, when King Victor Emanuel entered the new Parliament in Turin where he was proclaimed Re d’Italia (King of Italy) on February 18th, 1861 at 11.00 LST which was the first time since the fall of the Roman Empire in 476 CE that Italy was no longer divided into many small independent reigns. It was the very moment, when Italy was proclaimed a Nation, the day the national identity was born. 
According to what we know today, the Corona virus broke out in Wuhan (China) inmid December, was reported by the WHO on Dec. 31st and the first case tested positive in Italy was that of a couple of Chinese tourists from Wuhan. The test result was confirmed on January 30th; this was the first confirmed and publicly declared Covid-19 case in Italy. A week later an Italian who had recently travelled to Wuhan was tested positive. The first case of an Italian who had been infected in Italy was tested positive on February 20th, 2020. The 38 years old man from the Lodi province became nationally wide kwown as the patient nr. 1.
On February 22nd the first red zone in Northern Italy (around Codogno) was established. On March 4th, all schools in Italy were closed and scheduled school trips suspended. On March 7th due to a communication mistake, it became public that the very next day Milan and 14 provinces would become a red zone, too. Many hundreds escaped from Milan and went south, contributing in the spreading of the Virus in the South of Italy.
On March 11th, the Italian Prime Minister Conte extended the red zone to the entire Nation, any travelling form one into another region was now forbidden. On March 21st all not “vitally needed activities” were suspended. Italy was on total lockdown. 
At the time I am writing this (April 2020), the worst death toll per day so far registered in Italy was on March 27th 2020 with 969 deceased persons and more than 26.000 people it total.
Let’s now have a look at the radical chart, i.e. the chart of the moment Italy became a Nation. I will refer to this chart as “radical chart, root, or foundation chart” in this article..
The Ascendant is in the early degrees of Gemini and conjunct the Moon. It is squared by Saturn, the ruler of the 8th house. The AC ruler Mercury is in the 10th house, peregrine and in his fall. He is western and coming out of the rays. He is afflicted by both malefics (Mars by sign, Saturn by opposition).
Saturn is in the 4th, a productive house, peregrine and retrograde but disposed by the ruler of the AC who receives him. Since both, the AC and the AC ruler describe the health of the Italians, Saturn is a possible adversary.
Public health issues are described by the ruler of the 6th house and malefic out of sect, Mars, who is in aversion to the AC while he trines Saturn. Mars is peregrine in the 12th house of isolation, illegal matters or lock down. He is disposed by Venus, the ruler of the 5th of leisure, who is conjunct the MC (public affairs) in the 9th (travel/foreign countries).
The Sun opposes retrograde Jupiter, who is in aversion to the AC ruler Mercury and aspects the AC only by a sign-based sextile. The benefic in sect is peregrine and in a cadent house, which makes him weak.
Venus is in her own bounds, over the horizon by day and squaring Mars in the 12th, connecting topics such as religion, foreign countries, and travel (9th) with isolation (12th) and seek for pleasure (Venus, L5).
The Moon, the natural significator of the physical body and health is rising, trines Venus in the 9th and is afflicted by Saturn, the ruler of the 8th (trouble, death) and 9th (travel, foreign countries, religion).
From February 18th, 2019- February 19th, 2020, Italy was in a third house profection year counting one sign per year in the order of signs. This brings the attention to communication, travel, and neighbours. The Sun was the Lord of the year (LOY). The luminary is in the very last degree of Aquarius, in the domicile and bounds of Saturn. Jupiter is in the profected 1st house and plays a major role in this year. I consider him a co-ruler. Let us look at the details.
- The Sun, the general ruler of Life, is in his detriment, in the 9th house and activates both communication and close distance travel as well as foreign countries and far distance travels as the main topics of the year. The Sun is initially in aversion to its dispositor Saturn, who is in the 4th house before both planets approach an opposition without reception. Saturn is the ruler of the 8th house of trouble and death which makes this aspect particularly difficult. There is much tension and conflict (opposition) which is related to immigration (L9 in 4th) or travel (9th) borders, territories, and “home” (Saturn in the 4th) and which are linked to death. Finding a compromise is difficult (no reception).
- Jupiter, the general ruler of expansion, hospitality, and wealth) is in the 3rd house but retrograde, describing uncertainty or reversing situations related to communication from the government (L10) and (commercial-) partners (L7).
Since the LOY and the co ruler Jupiter are both afflicted, the profection describes a year of many tensions. Indeed, 2019 has been a time in which clandestine immigration was the main topic in Italy. The stories about NGO ships (as for example the German Sea Watch) desperately searching for an Italian harbour to let the dozens of refugees rescued from rubber dinghies, on land, made headlines worldwide.
The LOY and Jupiter, however, tell the story of the entire year. The outbreak of Covid-19 happened in the last month, or in other words, the 12th month (January 18th– Feb 18th) of this profection. In order to see how it was astrologically activated, we need to look at monthly profections.
Since the profected AC of this year was in Leo, a fixed sign, Abu Ma’shar tells us to direct in the order of signs:
An if the four indicators  (…) were in fixed signs, then one turns from the position of each of them forwards, a month for every sign, and it is that you assign the position in which each one is to the first month and the second sign to the second month, and the third sign for the third month and likewise they are turned equally in succession, sign after sign, until the twelve signs are assigned to the twelve months.
So, we start from the profected AC in Leo. Leo represents both the entire year and the first month of that year. The next sign, Virgo, represents the second month, Libra the third and so on. The 12th sign from Leo is Cancer. The profected AC ruler of January 20th -February 18th was therefore the nocturnal luminary, who is conjunct the AC, related to health, both by his accidental position in the 1st house and by being the natural ruler of the physical body.
Summarising we have
- The Sun as the Lord of the year (life, identity and purpose)
- Jupiter (wealth, growth) 
- the Moon (natural significator of the body) as the monthly ruler
when the Italian drama started.
Let us see how this plays out in the last month of the Solar Revolution for 2019-2020 and check, if these significators are strengthened or weakened in the Solar Revolution.
- The LOY (general significator of Life) is in the 6th house of illness/service/skills
and in aversion to its dispositor Saturn, which makes the Sun very weak. The AC ruler Mercury (life, purpose) opposes his own sign from his fall. Both factors can describe health issues.
- Jupiter, the co-Loy is strong in his own domicile and in an angular house from which he trines the afflicted Moon, but he also squares the SR Ascendant.
- The Moon, the monthly ruler from the profected natal chart when the virus outbreak started, is in the 12th house of hidden enemies and hospitals.
Let us now have a closer look at the SR itself.
The AC is trined by both malefics  and its ruler is strongly afflicted. a Saturn/Venus conjunction, that also sextiles the afflicted AC ruler. While there are restrictions regarding 5th house activities (Saturn/Venus) these are necessary and helpful for matters of health (trine). Furthermore, the first house is trined by Mars in the 9th, challenges arise from a foreign country. The Moon, general ruler of the body, is in the 12th house, essentially and accidentally afflicted. The 12th house is the 1st house in the radical chart.
Since Covid-19 brake out at the end of January, we are only interested in the last month of this Solar Return. Virgo is rising and since this is a mutable sign and the AC is in the second half of it, Abu Ma’shar teaches us to direct it in converse order.
And if these four indicators were in signs having two bodies then look; for if all of them were from the beginning of that sign up to 15 complete degrees of it, then it is turned from the position of each one of them equally in succession, sign after sign, just as you did when they are in fixed signs. And if they were in signs having two bodies but from the beginning of the sixteenths degree, of it up to the end of the sign, then it is turned from the position of the position of each one of them backwards, just as one does when they are in convertible signs. And indeed they are turned like this because the signs having two bodies from the beginning to the end of the fifteenth degree are of the nature of the fixed sign which is before it an safer that up to the end of thirty degrees they are of the nature of the convertible sign which is after it.
Counting 12 signs from the AC in clockwise order brings us to Libra. The monthly ruler is thus Venus. She rules the 12th (hidden things) sign from the profected AC. She is conjunct the malefic out of sect, Saturn, trines the AC and squares her own sign. Saturn is exalted in Libra and receives Venus in his domicile where she has dignity by bound and triplicity rulership. However, this monthly rulership also activates the natal Venus. She is in the 9th (foreign countries) trines the AC and the Moon (health) and is conjunct the MC, something is about becoming public. Since the monthly profected house is trined by the Sun (LOY) in the 6th, Venus activates health issues.
Now let us have a short look at the date when the Chinese couple was tested positive. This was the official beginning of the Corona crisis in Italy. In the inner chart we see the Solar Return for 2019-2020 and in the outer chart we see the transits form January 30th, 2020. The time is calculated for the approximative moment “late evening”, when Prime Minister Conte made a public declaration regarding the test result of the Chinese couple, around 22.00 CED.
- The monthly ruler of the profected natal AC (Moon) is in the 8th house, exactly
squaring the Saturn/Venus conjunction
- The LOY (Sun) is in the 6th house
- The AC ruler Mercury is approaching the conjunction with the radical Sun (LOY)
- Jupiter (co-ruler of the profection) in his fall is conjunct Saturn/Venus and close to the South Node; he trines the AC
- The ruler of the monthly profection of the SR (Venus) activates the AC ruler of the SR and radical chart (Mercury), opposes the SR Ascendant, squares the co-ruler Jupiter and transiting Mars and sextiles Saturn.
On February 18th, 2020, the country’s profected AC switched to the 4th house in Virgo, which brings the focus to house and home, roots, earth and grave. Mercury, who is also the ruler of the radical 1st house, has become the Lord of the year.
Mercury is accidentally strong by its position in the angular 10th house but he is essentially afflicted by being peregrine, western in a day chart, in his detriment and fall and coming out of the rays. Furthermore, he is not supported by his dispositor (aversion).
Abu Ma’shar writes at this regard:
If Mercury was the Lord of the Year and he is in the four stakes in the root and the revolution (…) in the two times  in a bad condition, made unfortunate, not received, in that year he will encounter something detestable because of writing, calculation and illness will befall him and he will be accused in those works he pursues; and if he has devoted to business, selling and buying, then he will suffer loss of it. 
An afflicted radical AND profected 1st house ruler brings the focus to health, especially so if he looks at the AC, which is the case here (square from Pisces). However, since Saturn the ruler of the 8th is in the sign of the profected AC (refer to fig. 1), he becomes the co-ruler and afflicts the AC and the Moon from a closely applying square while he is opposed by the LOY. We have also seen that Saturn trines Mars, so we can expect this to be a difficult year, only by this first analysis.
Both benefics are in aversion to Mercury (LOY) but trine (Venus) or sextile (Jupiter) the Moon/AC conjunction. This gives some protection, especially if confirmed by the Solar Revolution and transits.
The profected AC in Virgo describes the entire profected year and gives thus an outlook of the period between February 2020 and February 2021. Furthermore, Virgo also describes the first month of the monthly profections and thus the period from February 18th -March 18th, 2020. If we want to analyse the following months, we are told by Abu Ma’shar that charts with an Ascendant in fixed signs or in the first half of a mutable sign must be directed in the order of signs.  This means that in the second month the profected AC is in Libra, in the third month in Scorpio and so on.
Every activation of either the AC, AC ruler, profected AC/ruler or the Moon (physical body) might be important, if also confirmed by the Solar Revolution and the transits. I consider the activation of the common signs to be particularly important, since both the AC and the profected AC and the Lot of Fortune are in common signs. I will show how this works after the discussion of the Solar Revolution.
The Solar Revolution brings certain topics of the radical chart into focus and activates them. Others are so to say put on stand bye. We are thus looking for matches between the planets in the radical and SR chart in order to see, which topics will be the most important ones.
Abu Ma’shar says at this regard:
If a planet in the revolution returned to its own rooted place, then at that time it indicates the renewal of everything it had indicated in the root of the nativity, of the good and the bad.
The LOY (who is also the natal L1) rules the 8th house, is peregrine, in his detriment, fall and retrograde, going under the rays and is in the joy and exaltation of Venus, who is in avversion to him. He is going to sextile the Moon in her detriment. What is worse, is that he comes back to his own afflicted position in the radical chart. This is a serious affliction.
- This Solar Revolution has the AC in Scorpio and Mars is the AC ruler. As the ruler of the 1st, Mars rules “health”, but he also rules the 6th house of illness.  He is in a cadent house, has just entered his exaltation and is in the bounds of the LOY.
- The AC is in the bounds of Saturn, the malefic out of sect from whom it recieves a partile sextile.
- The Moon has just separated from Mars and is now mutually applying to a sextile to Mercury, the perfect description of transmission (Moon) of an illness (L6) to the Italian people (Mercury as the LOY and L1).
We can assume that times in which the Loy is activated either by body or sign are most relevant. Since the Loy is in a common sign, these signs assume a particular importance, the more so if we also find difficult aspects from the Moon and the malefics.
In order to know how the Covid-19 epidemy will develop in Italy in the future we have to consider mutlipe factors. In the radical chart we are searching for times, when common signs are activated, because both the radical and the profected AC are in common signs. In the Solar revolution we check for hard aspects to the AC, which is in a fixed sign. Furthermore, any acitvation of the stellium or of the 8th house from Fortune in the radical chart (Aries), which is also the 6th in the SR, are possibly significant. Since there will be many moments when ONE of these factors come into play, we need to find dates when several factors match, in particular the activation of a common sign in the monthly profection and a fixed sign activation in the SR.
The following table will make it easier to track the matches between AP, SR and some of the transits.
From the table above we see that there is a coincidence right in the first month of the profektion, i.e. at the time when corona infections spread massivly and the death toll began to skyrocket. On February 18th, the beginning of the current profection, Mercury became the ruler of the year abd thus describes the Italian people. The planet went retrograde in Pisces (his fall) on that very day.
When the LOY transited over his own SR and Radix position on March 27th, 2020 while Mars (L6) transited over the Solar Saturn, the number of victims in Italy was at its highest with 976 deads/ day (as of April 2020).
The situation got better when Venus moved into Gemini on April 3rd where she built up, so to speak, a protective shield in the 1st Radix and 8th Solar House, . This corresponded to the time when the daily number of victims slowly began to decrease (March 1: 793 victims/day, March 27: 969 victims/day, April 4: 681 victims/day, April 15: 578 victims/day). Venus has no special dignity in Gemini, accordingly is the help that comes from her. She will remain in this sign until August 7th. But on June 20th, the profekted AC enters Capricorn, activating both the 8th house in the Radix and the Solar Stellium, while Mars, the ruler of the 6th house, moves into the 8th house from Fortune and his own domicile, where he is strengthened. This could describe a new wave of infections.
In August/September, the LOY, whose troubled position has already been discussed, will be activated in the profection. In the SR the opposition to the AC is activated. Venus at that time is not helpful either, because she has already left Gemini at the same time Mars squares the radix Saturn in mid August.
A similar configuration as in March will occur at the beginning of December, Mercury thenmoves into his detriment in Sagittarius, from which he makes an opposition to the natal AC or the 8th Solar House. At the same time, we find the bicorporal sign Gemini activated in the profection and the fixed sign Leo in the solar. Mars is still in his own domicile, in the 8th house from Fortune. On December 25th, Mercury also transits over the South Node in (at 4°Capricorn), the same degree of the eclipse from Dec. 26th, 2019. Only after this we will know how much damage this epidemic has really brought to Italy.
In order to conclude, let us look at the triwheel, in order to see in the chart what I have shown so far. The inner chart is the foundation chart, the chart in the middle is the SR and the outer chart are the transits from mid April, while I am writing this.
The indications in the foundation chart, profections, SR and transits illustrated in this article show that the epidemic in Italy may not be over quickly and a second wave must be feared, especially in August or December, which is why it is so important not to let our guard down too early.
 Alberto Banti, Storia della Borghesia italiana, Donzelli Editore, 1966, p. 3 and also online at https://www.lastampa.it/cultura/2011/02/18/news/l-italia-e-fatta-ora-fate-le-leggi-1.36979798
 He refers to the profected AS, SR AC and ninth part and profected Lot of Fortune.
 Abu Ma’shar, on the revolutions of the years of nativities, p 558 paragraph 26
 Jupiter is also the natural ruler of the lungs.
 Mars trines by sign but is approaching the orb of a physical aspect.
 Abu Ma’shar, p. 559 Paragraph 29
 Abu Ma’shar refers to both the profection and the SR. Mercury is indeed in bad conditions in the two charts as I will show.
 Abu Ma’shar, p. 262,2
 Mercury also rules rational processes and decisions. When we are under pressure, decisions can be wrong and cause damage, which was the case in many decisions regarding the public health in Lombardy, the region that was worst hit.
 And indication in a natal chart can be confirmed, worsened, or smoothed by a Solar Revolution. See Abu Ma’shar p. 397
 Abu Ma’shar, p.559, 28
 Abu Ma’shar, p. 397
 Since the AC is going to change its sign after just a few degrees, I think that Mars describes the illness better than the health.
 We also must consider that the part of Fortune is in a common sign, too, which makes the activation of these signs even more important.